***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 3.4 3.4 -1.2 33.8 38.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.2 2.8 -1.3 32.2 36.7 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 4.7 3.4 -1.3 33.0 37.1 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 1.4 -1.5 29.3 34.3 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.8 4.2 2.1 -1.5 30.2 34.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.4 3.7 1.7 -1.4 30.4 35.0 3.9 4.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.0 2.8 -1.2 33.0 37.4 3.0 4.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 1.7 -1.6 28.5 32.9 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 4.4 4.9 2.9 -1.4 31.6 35.6 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 3.7 4.1 2.2 -1.5 29.6 33.8 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.9 4.4 2.2 -1.4 31.0 35.1 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 4.0 4.4 2.1 -1.4 30.1 34.3 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.7 4.1 2.1 -1.4 30.6 35.0 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.5 4.8 2.8 -1.6 30.2 34.2 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 3.2 2.0 -1.3 30.7 35.8 3.3 4.2 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 4.3 4.8 2.1 -1.3 31.5 35.6 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 2.7 2.6 -1.4 31.3 35.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 2.2 2.5 2.0 -1.6 29.3 33.3 2.7 3.5 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.0 -1.3 32.2 36.5 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 0.9 1.1 0.5 -1.7 26.7 31.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.2 -1.3 32.1 36.2 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.2 2.7 -1.4 30.9 35.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.6 3.2 -1.4 32.1 36.2 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.5 4.8 2.9 -1.5 30.8 34.8 5.0 6.2 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.2 3.4 2.1 -1.4 30.8 35.5 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.4 3.7 1.8 -1.3 29.5 34.0 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.4 2.8 -1.2 33.0 37.4 4.4 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.7 3.9 1.8 -1.5 29.8 34.8 4.1 5.1 6.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 1.1 1.2 1.4 -1.6 28.6 32.7 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.3 3.1 -1.3 33.0 37.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------