***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 12.3 18.0 118.8 69.2 63.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.5 16.0 118.0 68.6 61.6 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 12.7 14.2 19.6 130.9 72.8 66.9 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.5 17.0 23.1 138.7 75.0 69.5 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 14.4 18.1 24.8 155.3 79.3 74.3 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 12.6 19.1 25.0 187.5 84.4 78.6 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.7 10.2 14.9 111.7 66.6 59.6 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 17.9 23.1 26.4 162.3 80.7 75.8 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 12.3 16.3 25.1 164.0 81.6 76.5 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 15.0 20.0 26.7 167.8 82.2 77.4 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 14.7 20.6 25.0 169.2 82.2 76.9 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 16.8 21.7 24.0 158.4 79.8 74.5 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 17.1 24.0 26.7 176.5 83.4 78.6 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.3 20.7 23.1 143.8 76.7 70.7 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 8.8 16.4 22.2 124.9 71.2 65.9 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 13.8 18.8 24.9 168.2 81.9 76.4 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.3 11.7 14.3 109.5 65.6 58.3 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.5 16.6 26.3 155.7 79.6 74.9 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 11.6 12.3 17.3 122.5 70.2 63.3 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 15.0 18.6 31.7 158.7 80.1 75.8 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 12.7 15.3 22.7 149.0 77.8 72.7 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.4 12.5 15.7 110.6 65.9 58.9 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.1 13.3 19.5 131.5 73.1 66.6 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 15.6 18.3 23.1 145.0 77.0 71.5 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.9 10.9 21.7 130.0 72.5 67.9 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 15.9 19.1 24.8 153.2 78.6 73.7 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 8.3 11.9 18.8 118.1 68.9 63.9 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.8 15.1 23.5 145.5 76.6 71.1 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 19.2 23.3 27.6 155.1 79.6 74.6 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.6 10.6 16.6 117.3 68.5 61.9 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------