***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 13.9 16.5 125.0 71.2 62.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.8 14.6 17.0 143.6 76.3 66.2 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 14.7 16.6 16.8 131.3 73.0 63.7 4.1 7.8 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 15.5 18.1 18.9 141.2 75.7 64.3 6.1 9.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 13.2 14.5 17.6 133.1 73.6 62.9 6.2 9.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 9.4 11.2 19.1 143.6 76.3 62.9 3.6 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.5 16.1 17.2 145.3 76.8 65.5 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 21.0 23.0 18.6 131.1 73.0 63.2 10.4 14.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 12.5 13.7 17.1 128.8 72.3 62.5 4.5 7.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 16.7 18.6 18.2 131.8 73.2 63.4 6.9 10.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.9 14.6 16.6 131.7 73.1 62.6 5.0 8.2 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 14.3 15.3 16.9 130.1 72.7 62.2 6.3 9.5 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.5 14.0 17.9 134.3 73.9 62.2 5.3 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 22.8 25.5 19.3 133.0 73.5 64.6 7.9 13.6 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 14.6 16.8 20.1 136.1 74.4 62.9 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.8 14.6 17.2 136.6 74.6 62.8 4.8 7.8 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.9 14.3 16.5 149.7 77.9 67.3 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 16.5 18.9 20.1 132.5 73.4 64.5 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.9 17.8 16.8 138.5 75.0 65.5 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.9 20.5 24.8 132.0 73.3 64.3 6.0 10.6 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.6 14.6 16.5 125.6 71.3 62.0 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 13.8 15.8 16.7 144.2 76.5 67.3 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 15.2 16.8 17.0 130.9 72.9 63.9 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.0 20.9 18.4 131.1 73.0 63.7 7.2 11.8 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.0 11.8 18.2 126.6 71.6 62.8 3.9 6.5 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 12.5 13.9 18.7 132.6 73.4 61.6 4.8 7.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.5 17.7 125.7 71.3 62.4 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.6 14.8 19.1 141.9 75.9 63.3 3.9 7.0 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 25.9 29.5 21.9 131.3 73.1 64.4 10.0 16.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 14.3 16.1 17.1 139.6 75.3 65.4 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------