***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 8.7 14.0 112.7 66.7 54.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.5 13.8 113.6 67.4 53.0 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.6 13.8 107.8 64.9 53.8 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.7 15.6 109.7 66.2 54.2 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.1 14.0 14.2 98.9 61.2 51.1 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.2 12.2 14.1 95.8 59.7 49.2 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.6 13.7 115.2 68.0 53.5 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 17.2 15.8 100.9 61.7 51.7 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.9 13.6 93.0 58.4 49.6 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.8 11.4 14.9 96.1 59.6 50.5 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.4 11.4 13.6 99.4 61.2 50.8 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.7 13.9 99.3 61.0 50.8 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.3 13.6 14.1 96.4 59.5 49.9 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.0 15.4 94.9 59.8 50.3 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 14.1 16.6 117.7 69.4 55.0 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.5 12.5 13.8 100.0 61.4 50.9 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.1 13.2 110.4 66.3 52.3 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.5 16.7 96.8 60.0 50.8 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.2 13.8 111.1 66.5 53.0 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.9 14.6 22.4 107.4 64.5 53.4 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.0 13.6 99.8 61.4 51.7 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.0 13.4 104.6 64.3 51.0 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.2 13.9 105.0 64.3 52.3 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.4 15.0 97.2 60.6 51.3 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.5 15.2 107.5 64.8 53.9 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.3 14.2 93.3 58.8 50.1 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.7 14.8 110.5 65.9 53.8 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.8 15.3 109.4 66.2 53.2 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 18.7 18.9 99.8 61.5 51.4 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.6 13.9 114.6 67.7 53.8 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------