***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.2 11.3 97.4 61.1 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.1 10.4 93.0 60.1 51.3 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.7 10.9 97.0 60.8 53.0 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 15.6 16.4 13.9 128.4 72.1 61.1 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.3 14.7 12.3 113.9 67.3 58.6 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.1 13.4 13.2 118.0 68.7 59.8 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.3 10.8 94.7 60.7 51.1 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.2 18.8 13.6 116.5 68.3 59.4 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.8 9.4 11.8 106.1 64.2 56.8 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.2 12.7 109.6 65.8 58.0 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.8 14.1 11.7 111.7 66.5 57.3 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.6 12.5 116.4 68.4 58.6 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.2 12.9 113.6 67.3 58.4 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.8 15.6 12.3 97.7 61.2 55.1 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.6 20.4 15.2 143.7 76.2 61.7 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.2 12.3 116.1 68.1 58.6 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.4 10.4 96.2 61.3 50.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.8 13.8 109.7 66.0 58.7 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.7 11.3 10.3 91.8 59.3 51.3 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.1 15.9 17.6 119.2 69.2 60.6 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.5 11.7 104.1 63.3 54.9 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.0 10.4 96.1 60.9 51.1 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.4 10.4 92.0 58.9 52.0 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 9.9 12.1 12.3 103.0 63.3 56.5 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.4 16.1 13.2 108.4 65.3 55.2 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.4 13.9 120.9 69.8 59.5 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.7 12.2 99.0 61.9 52.0 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 16.2 17.4 14.0 134.8 73.8 61.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.9 18.5 14.9 110.6 66.5 59.2 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.4 10.6 93.4 59.9 51.5 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------