***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 49.3 59.8 114.2 66.6 61.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 46.8 46.8 57.2 117.4 68.3 63.1 26.8 35.4 45.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 58.9 59.2 61.0 117.9 68.9 64.3 35.1 45.4 56.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 63.1 64.7 71.5 129.8 74.3 70.0 37.2 47.1 57.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 59.2 60.9 68.9 126.7 73.9 69.4 38.4 46.8 55.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 52.4 56.8 71.4 135.8 78.1 72.8 29.7 38.3 47.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 41.1 49.8 56.5 116.8 67.9 62.8 28.0 37.4 48.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 76.5 79.7 74.5 128.7 75.1 70.0 51.4 61.7 72.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 46.5 48.5 67.7 124.4 73.2 68.6 29.0 36.2 44.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 56.5 59.1 72.6 127.6 75.0 70.1 38.2 45.7 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 56.6 59.2 66.9 129.8 75.7 70.8 37.1 44.9 53.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 56.4 58.5 67.3 127.3 74.2 69.5 37.7 45.2 53.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 61.0 64.0 71.6 131.5 76.5 72.2 36.4 45.5 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 73.0 73.5 70.3 118.0 69.2 64.8 48.7 59.7 71.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 66.6 69.7 74.1 129.4 73.2 68.8 31.1 44.5 60.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 56.3 59.3 68.2 131.6 76.4 71.7 31.0 40.3 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 41.1 48.9 54.5 116.1 67.5 62.4 29.4 38.3 47.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 52.3 53.7 76.9 124.2 73.0 68.1 35.5 42.5 49.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 52.1 52.1 58.2 116.7 68.0 62.9 30.0 39.7 50.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 65.4 70.1 96.5 129.7 75.0 69.2 37.8 49.0 61.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 52.0 53.9 64.4 121.1 71.0 66.3 32.5 41.1 50.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 42.4 49.2 56.2 113.7 66.3 61.0 30.5 39.5 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 48.9 48.8 60.8 116.1 67.9 63.0 29.2 37.8 47.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 62.4 63.1 68.8 120.0 70.5 66.0 41.2 50.3 59.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 53.4 53.6 68.3 119.0 69.3 65.3 30.9 40.4 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 55.0 56.5 71.6 125.6 73.0 68.7 33.2 41.8 51.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 44.9 52.9 63.5 114.0 66.5 61.9 31.0 41.0 52.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 55.7 59.0 71.9 133.0 75.4 70.7 30.1 39.7 50.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 84.3 86.7 83.3 124.6 72.9 67.6 58.4 69.2 80.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 48.9 48.8 58.2 116.7 67.9 63.0 27.8 36.9 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------