***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.5 67.6 66.1 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 0.8 1.2 2.9 1.9 73.0 70.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 2.4 2.6 3.0 1.6 68.8 67.3 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 -3.4 -2.7 0.0 1.0 61.6 60.5 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 -0.9 0.1 1.5 1.4 65.9 64.7 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 -1.5 -1.0 -1.4 0.8 58.5 58.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 0.8 1.2 2.9 1.9 72.7 70.6 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 47 53 100 -3.8 -3.8 -0.5 1.4 65.7 64.6 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 -0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 61.9 61.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 -0.6 0.3 -0.1 1.4 65.8 64.7 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 -0.7 0.1 0.6 1.2 63.6 62.7 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 -1.2 -0.4 0.1 1.3 63.9 63.0 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 67.5 66.4 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.3 75.4 73.9 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -0.5 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 38.9 39.9 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 -0.1 0.9 0.4 1.5 65.8 64.7 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 0.6 1.3 3.1 2.3 77.9 74.9 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 1.8 70.3 68.9 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 0.9 1.2 2.8 1.8 72.3 70.4 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 -3.4 -3.2 -0.8 1.8 69.5 67.6 -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 0.6 0.7 2.4 1.5 67.1 65.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 0.8 1.4 3.3 2.3 78.1 75.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 0.8 1.0 2.4 1.7 70.3 68.8 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.1 72.9 71.6 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 -0.3 0.7 2.5 1.5 66.8 65.4 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 1.2 62.1 61.3 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 1.0 1.3 3.0 1.7 69.5 67.8 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -1.8 -0.4 0.3 52.5 52.3 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 -1.7 -1.7 -1.1 1.5 66.4 65.2 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 1.0 1.3 2.9 1.7 70.4 68.6 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------