***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 6.7 8.0 8.5 1.4 65.7 63.5 4.4 6.3 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 7.1 7.6 8.9 1.9 71.5 68.6 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 8.6 8.7 9.2 1.7 68.3 65.9 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.6 3.4 5.3 1.1 61.9 60.1 0.0 2.0 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 7.1 8.0 7.0 1.1 61.9 60.4 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.5 5.4 0.2 52.4 52.3 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 6.6 6.9 8.5 1.6 69.0 66.6 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.5 6.2 0.9 60.4 59.0 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 7.9 8.6 7.6 0.9 60.2 58.9 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 7.0 7.6 7.0 1.0 60.7 59.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 7.1 7.8 7.4 1.0 60.5 59.1 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 7.5 8.1 6.6 1.0 60.8 59.4 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.6 7.5 1.0 59.8 58.5 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 9.4 10.0 9.3 2.3 71.7 68.9 5.2 7.3 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.3 5.5 -0.2 47.4 47.8 4.0 5.5 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.7 8.3 6.9 1.0 60.2 58.8 5.3 7.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 6.6 7.0 8.5 1.9 72.9 69.8 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 5.3 5.8 6.7 1.0 60.9 59.4 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.7 8.2 9.0 1.9 71.3 68.5 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.3 5.4 0.9 60.2 59.0 2.2 4.2 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 7.1 8.1 8.6 1.3 64.0 62.0 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 7.5 8.0 8.7 2.0 73.2 70.3 3.8 5.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.0 9.1 2.0 70.7 68.2 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 8.1 9.5 8.6 1.6 66.5 64.3 5.5 7.5 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 6.0 6.8 7.6 1.2 62.9 61.0 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.7 5.7 0.4 54.3 54.0 4.9 6.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 6.9 7.9 8.2 1.2 64.0 62.0 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.8 5.6 0.6 55.9 55.1 4.5 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.0 6.0 0.7 58.1 57.2 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 7.1 7.4 8.8 1.7 69.3 66.8 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------