***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 13.4 15.4 19.0 152.4 78.1 73.3 3.8 6.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 12.2 15.8 19.3 168.0 81.4 75.3 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 14.5 17.8 19.3 158.2 79.4 73.2 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.7 13.2 15.7 109.4 66.9 61.5 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.9 15.4 18.0 135.6 74.2 67.5 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 11.4 13.8 17.0 142.1 75.8 67.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 12.1 15.6 18.4 162.3 80.2 74.4 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 16.9 19.0 20.3 138.4 74.8 68.3 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 11.8 14.0 19.0 147.9 77.3 70.0 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.4 17.1 20.8 149.1 77.6 70.3 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.9 18.0 132.1 73.2 66.4 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 15.8 17.6 18.4 135.6 74.2 67.9 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.6 17.7 20.0 139.0 75.1 68.6 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 18.2 23.3 23.7 160.1 80.1 73.0 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 9.3 10.4 12.5 85.9 60.0 54.8 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.8 17.8 130.3 72.8 66.4 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 14.3 17.9 17.7 160.6 79.8 73.9 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.4 16.1 22.3 154.0 78.8 71.8 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 13.5 17.6 20.2 172.6 82.3 76.0 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.9 22.9 132.8 73.0 66.3 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 12.9 14.6 18.7 144.2 76.4 70.0 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 15.8 20.3 19.4 166.7 81.2 75.2 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 13.5 18.1 21.0 173.1 82.4 75.9 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.2 19.6 21.4 156.0 79.1 72.1 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 10.8 11.8 19.2 140.0 75.3 70.2 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.3 15.0 17.5 124.8 71.4 64.6 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 13.6 15.4 19.1 149.5 77.5 72.6 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.4 9.6 14.0 102.2 64.7 59.0 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 18.6 21.2 22.3 144.6 76.4 69.5 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 11.8 15.2 19.3 165.4 80.9 74.6 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------