***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.0 11.9 98.0 62.2 50.5 3.7 6.9 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.1 10.7 101.4 63.6 51.3 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.7 12.4 97.7 61.9 51.1 4.1 7.8 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 13.0 14.2 97.9 62.2 50.7 6.1 9.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 11.0 14.1 94.6 59.9 49.2 6.2 9.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.8 12.9 97.5 62.0 52.7 3.6 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.0 10.3 100.3 63.6 51.2 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.5 13.8 90.4 58.6 49.9 10.4 14.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.9 13.7 95.1 60.3 50.1 4.5 7.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.5 14.2 93.2 59.5 50.0 6.9 10.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.2 14.7 99.7 62.3 52.1 5.0 8.2 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.6 13.1 92.0 59.6 50.8 6.3 9.5 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.7 13.9 97.5 62.3 52.6 5.3 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.7 14.5 94.0 60.0 51.3 7.9 13.6 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.4 12.1 13.9 101.8 65.0 53.4 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.9 13.8 100.7 63.3 52.7 4.8 7.8 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.5 10.2 99.9 63.0 51.6 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.9 14.0 89.6 57.9 49.5 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.1 11.0 99.8 62.8 51.1 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.5 16.4 85.7 56.0 48.8 6.0 10.6 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.0 13.3 97.5 61.7 51.0 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.0 10.9 100.9 63.3 52.3 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.8 11.7 94.8 60.5 49.9 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.1 13.9 93.8 60.0 50.7 7.2 11.8 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.6 13.5 94.1 59.7 49.1 3.9 6.5 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.9 13.0 92.4 59.6 51.3 4.8 7.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.2 12.6 98.5 61.8 50.5 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.4 13.7 100.3 63.8 51.9 3.9 7.0 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.6 19.9 15.1 89.8 57.5 50.0 10.0 16.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.8 11.0 99.8 63.1 50.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------