***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.9 10.2 90.2 59.9 48.5 4.0 6.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.0 9.2 91.4 60.4 46.6 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.6 9.7 86.4 58.2 46.8 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 9.8 8.3 63.6 49.1 41.2 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.3 10.5 8.6 65.1 49.3 41.2 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.0 8.0 6.5 51.5 41.9 34.7 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.8 8.9 90.1 59.9 45.8 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.2 11.5 8.1 57.4 44.4 37.0 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.4 9.4 69.2 51.3 42.7 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.6 9.1 64.7 48.5 40.4 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.4 7.8 7.8 60.1 46.6 38.7 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.9 7.3 55.7 43.3 36.1 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.3 9.7 7.4 55.9 43.8 36.5 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.8 10.8 80.7 55.8 44.8 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 7.0 7.2 56.7 47.5 38.1 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.3 8.6 7.2 56.4 44.5 37.1 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.8 9.0 93.9 61.7 47.2 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 7.5 10.0 69.6 50.6 41.6 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.7 9.4 91.2 60.2 47.1 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.5 9.6 10.8 60.1 46.1 37.5 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.2 9.5 75.3 53.9 44.9 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.7 9.6 96.9 62.8 48.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 9.6 88.3 58.8 47.2 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.5 10.1 77.5 54.6 43.9 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.5 10.3 79.2 55.9 47.2 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.1 7.4 7.0 52.5 41.4 32.9 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.7 10.7 90.2 59.9 49.0 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.7 7.0 7.1 56.3 45.8 37.7 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.3 14.3 10.5 68.9 49.9 40.6 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.1 9.5 92.0 60.6 47.1 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------