***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.6 11.7 100.8 63.7 50.5 3.7 7.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.7 10.0 95.7 62.3 48.0 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.1 14.4 11.2 97.6 62.9 49.4 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.9 11.8 93.8 61.1 47.3 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.7 13.0 12.5 99.2 62.7 49.0 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.9 11.1 94.2 61.5 48.8 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.0 9.9 96.6 62.5 48.5 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.1 16.6 13.5 100.7 63.3 50.6 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.1 13.1 100.6 63.1 50.3 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.4 13.5 100.2 62.9 50.6 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.9 12.2 100.4 63.2 50.1 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.9 12.2 101.7 63.8 50.6 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.7 12.5 101.3 63.6 50.6 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.1 15.7 13.6 94.6 61.4 49.6 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.4 10.7 90.7 61.2 45.7 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.5 12.0 100.8 63.5 50.2 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.7 9.7 94.7 61.9 47.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.1 14.3 101.1 63.5 51.9 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.4 10.2 95.9 62.3 48.1 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 14.1 18.3 105.2 65.2 52.4 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.3 12.4 99.1 62.8 49.5 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.8 10.5 99.2 63.2 48.9 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.5 11.0 96.2 62.3 48.3 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.8 13.0 98.0 62.6 50.5 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.4 14.9 13.0 98.6 62.6 49.5 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.1 11.9 99.7 63.4 50.0 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.9 13.4 12.3 100.7 63.6 50.6 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.5 10.8 92.0 61.0 46.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.8 17.4 15.5 103.5 64.4 52.5 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.4 10.4 97.6 63.0 48.9 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------