***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 42.4 47.2 52.8 111.1 64.7 59.0 28.4 37.7 48.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 46.6 46.1 49.1 115.6 67.4 61.7 26.8 35.4 45.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 50.4 55.6 52.6 110.5 64.3 58.7 35.1 45.4 56.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 52.0 48.1 50.0 91.8 51.7 47.8 37.2 47.1 57.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 50.3 50.0 53.2 98.5 56.2 51.9 38.4 46.8 55.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 42.7 40.4 47.5 95.7 54.2 49.8 29.7 38.3 47.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 41.6 48.6 47.5 113.8 66.3 60.8 28.0 37.4 48.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 66.3 64.5 55.7 97.0 54.6 51.4 51.4 61.7 72.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 39.0 40.4 55.3 102.4 58.8 54.5 29.0 36.2 44.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 48.8 49.4 57.7 101.5 58.0 54.1 38.2 45.7 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 48.1 47.8 52.7 98.5 56.1 52.2 37.1 44.9 53.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 48.5 47.3 51.0 96.4 54.3 50.9 37.7 45.2 53.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 49.7 49.5 53.8 99.2 56.5 52.6 36.4 45.5 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 64.0 68.4 62.6 107.9 62.6 57.3 48.7 59.7 71.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 52.4 43.3 44.4 84.0 48.5 44.7 31.1 44.5 60.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 44.7 43.6 50.8 97.7 55.5 51.4 31.0 40.3 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 49.5 47.8 46.6 113.4 66.1 60.9 29.4 38.3 47.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 45.5 46.5 60.6 103.3 59.2 54.9 35.5 42.5 49.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 52.3 52.1 50.8 116.3 67.8 61.9 30.0 39.7 50.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 54.6 51.4 68.4 95.8 53.7 50.5 37.8 49.0 61.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 44.5 46.8 54.0 104.1 60.1 55.3 32.5 41.1 50.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 50.9 50.9 50.5 117.4 68.4 63.0 30.5 39.5 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 41.6 47.8 53.2 114.0 66.6 60.7 29.2 37.8 47.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 53.9 57.0 58.3 106.5 61.5 56.6 41.2 50.3 59.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 44.9 46.4 56.0 103.2 59.5 54.7 30.9 40.4 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 46.2 42.9 49.4 92.7 51.8 48.7 33.2 41.8 51.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 45.8 51.0 54.8 110.2 64.1 58.4 31.0 41.0 52.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 29.7 39.7 45.6 88.2 49.8 45.9 30.1 39.7 50.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 73.7 74.7 63.5 101.7 57.9 53.7 58.4 69.2 80.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 49.1 48.0 50.2 115.0 67.0 61.1 27.8 36.9 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------