***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 5.9 5.9 5.2 1.9 67.8 65.5 1.7 3.8 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.4 5.1 1.8 66.7 64.6 1.4 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.2 5.6 1.9 67.3 64.8 2.9 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.8 67.8 65.1 -1.4 0.4 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.8 6.8 3.7 1.9 68.3 65.4 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.3 3.5 1.9 69.1 65.8 2.4 4.2 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.1 5.1 1.8 66.9 64.7 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.8 0.5 3.5 1.6 66.7 64.1 -2.4 -0.9 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.7 4.6 1.9 67.6 64.8 3.3 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.8 4.1 1.7 66.8 64.1 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.1 3.8 1.9 68.5 65.5 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.4 3.8 1.8 68.7 65.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 7.3 7.2 3.6 1.9 69.9 66.3 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 8.2 7.6 5.3 1.7 65.2 62.5 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 5.0 5.0 3.2 1.7 67.0 64.7 1.2 3.1 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.9 3.6 2.0 69.5 66.2 3.4 5.4 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 5.1 4.7 5.0 1.6 65.3 63.1 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.6 4.3 1.7 66.0 63.3 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.1 5.3 1.8 66.7 64.5 1.8 3.9 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.5 3.0 2.6 1.4 64.6 62.5 -0.6 1.3 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.1 7.0 5.1 1.8 67.3 64.8 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.3 5.0 1.5 64.5 62.5 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.0 5.7 5.7 1.8 66.3 63.9 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.8 5.1 1.8 66.1 63.2 3.2 5.5 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.2 3.7 1.8 67.4 65.1 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.4 3.3 1.8 69.8 66.4 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.8 4.8 1.8 67.7 65.4 2.4 4.6 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.6 2.9 1.8 67.6 65.0 2.5 4.5 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 3.7 3.3 3.8 1.6 65.3 62.7 -0.4 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.5 5.1 1.9 67.3 65.2 1.4 3.4 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------