***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.2 9.1 81.1 56.9 48.7 3.1 5.7 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.7 8.0 78.0 56.0 46.7 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.0 5.7 7.4 64.7 49.3 41.7 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.0 9.6 73.7 52.5 44.7 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.3 11.3 86.3 57.7 50.1 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.7 8.0 63.6 46.9 40.7 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.4 8.1 9.1 90.9 61.3 51.9 3.2 5.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.8 6.2 7.3 49.1 39.8 34.3 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.2 5.2 7.9 63.0 48.1 41.8 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 5.1 8.3 56.9 43.6 38.3 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.1 8.1 60.9 46.3 40.1 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.1 4.0 6.0 46.3 38.5 33.3 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.9 9.0 59.7 43.7 38.7 4.3 7.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.5 7.8 50.2 41.3 35.2 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 2.0 2.7 4.2 31.7 34.0 27.1 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.3 8.3 62.5 46.6 39.8 3.3 6.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.8 8.7 84.9 59.1 49.1 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.8 8.6 55.5 42.9 37.6 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.9 6.7 7.4 69.9 52.2 43.5 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.8 10.2 55.6 43.7 36.4 4.0 7.0 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.7 8.1 66.4 49.9 43.0 4.0 6.7 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.5 8.9 8.7 78.3 56.0 46.4 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.6 6.9 59.9 47.2 39.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 6.5 7.6 53.4 42.2 36.6 4.6 8.2 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 6.0 8.0 14.0 107.5 66.1 58.5 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.2 6.9 51.7 40.3 35.9 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.3 9.3 12.1 102.1 64.3 56.2 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.4 3.6 6.3 49.8 40.9 33.9 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 7.6 8.8 53.6 42.0 36.4 5.4 9.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.1 7.9 76.2 55.1 46.1 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------