***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 14.9 19.5 19.1 171.3 82.1 72.4 3.3 6.6 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.3 18.6 17.6 176.1 82.8 68.8 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 17.0 22.3 17.3 159.3 79.6 69.2 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 15.9 20.0 19.2 151.7 78.0 67.5 6.1 10.0 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 13.7 15.2 16.8 134.0 73.8 64.6 6.0 9.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.9 15.6 128.8 72.3 58.2 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.2 19.9 17.1 174.6 82.7 68.8 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 22.6 26.7 18.8 153.2 78.1 69.2 10.0 14.8 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.0 14.8 16.8 139.5 75.2 66.7 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.2 19.4 17.0 137.0 74.6 65.6 5.9 9.9 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 13.8 16.6 17.9 144.5 76.5 68.4 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 14.7 18.0 17.8 150.3 77.5 69.3 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.0 15.8 17.7 136.5 74.5 64.8 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 23.2 30.6 20.9 162.4 80.6 67.7 7.5 13.0 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 14.9 23.9 19.3 177.7 81.8 70.8 2.6 6.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.8 15.3 125.2 71.2 61.2 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.0 17.9 17.0 173.8 82.2 67.6 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 16.5 19.5 18.2 142.9 75.9 65.8 5.5 9.4 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.3 23.3 18.0 175.8 82.7 69.1 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.0 29.3 26.7 174.7 82.7 72.8 6.0 10.9 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 14.2 16.8 16.6 143.6 76.3 66.8 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 13.3 17.6 18.3 176.6 82.6 68.4 5.2 8.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.5 22.1 18.9 175.6 82.8 69.3 4.9 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 18.5 22.6 17.5 145.5 76.7 65.7 6.0 10.6 16.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 11.9 14.9 20.5 160.3 80.0 70.5 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.8 16.2 17.9 146.1 76.4 66.0 4.2 7.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 14.6 19.5 20.2 170.9 82.1 72.2 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.7 15.7 16.8 145.4 76.2 64.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 27.5 34.4 21.5 154.5 78.8 68.6 9.7 16.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.3 21.9 17.8 175.2 82.6 69.9 4.0 7.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------