***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.7 13.1 121.8 70.4 59.3 3.7 6.1 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 9.7 10.0 12.0 124.5 71.2 58.3 4.2 6.3 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.5 14.1 13.1 121.7 70.3 58.3 5.1 8.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 14.4 13.8 107.7 66.0 55.3 6.1 9.8 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.7 14.6 13.6 103.6 64.1 52.9 6.2 10.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.7 12.9 11.8 92.3 59.9 49.1 6.6 10.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.1 12.5 134.5 74.0 60.3 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.1 16.9 14.2 96.8 61.4 50.0 8.9 13.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.3 14.5 107.7 65.5 53.7 4.2 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.0 14.7 102.6 63.5 52.0 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.1 12.9 98.0 61.8 51.3 5.4 9.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.4 12.6 93.9 60.2 49.2 6.3 9.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.3 14.0 13.0 95.2 60.6 50.4 7.1 11.0 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.7 14.8 15.4 111.5 66.6 54.2 6.5 10.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 15.0 14.4 117.3 69.5 57.8 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.1 12.2 94.9 60.7 50.4 6.5 9.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.8 12.8 138.1 74.8 59.9 4.1 6.8 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.8 15.6 106.4 64.8 52.6 4.3 7.4 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 10.4 12.0 119.3 69.7 57.5 3.3 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.9 19.9 105.9 64.9 51.6 5.9 9.2 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.9 13.6 111.2 66.7 54.9 4.9 8.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.9 11.0 12.8 129.4 72.4 58.1 3.9 6.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.2 9.3 12.6 116.3 68.6 56.9 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.6 14.6 112.0 66.9 54.5 4.6 8.2 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.8 14.2 112.5 67.4 56.9 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.6 12.3 91.8 60.0 47.5 6.9 10.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 14.2 13.7 120.2 69.8 59.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.2 12.9 104.7 65.3 54.4 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.7 18.7 16.9 106.4 64.7 51.9 7.5 12.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.0 12.4 125.4 71.5 58.7 4.0 6.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------