***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.4 13.5 12.2 110.1 66.9 50.9 3.7 7.5 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.9 11.4 123.0 70.9 55.0 4.9 8.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.8 12.3 114.3 68.0 51.3 6.2 10.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 14.7 13.4 109.3 66.0 50.5 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.0 15.0 13.6 112.2 66.8 50.8 5.3 9.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.1 11.0 105.6 64.3 54.0 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.6 16.0 11.0 118.5 69.7 54.3 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.2 18.6 14.2 116.8 68.4 53.9 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.1 14.2 112.7 67.0 51.1 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.5 14.6 114.5 67.5 52.8 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.6 12.9 114.5 67.6 52.4 5.0 8.8 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.7 12.2 113.0 67.1 53.0 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.0 11.7 103.6 63.2 51.4 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.7 20.0 15.2 116.3 68.4 53.4 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.6 15.5 14.6 121.6 70.5 54.3 3.4 7.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.1 11.7 107.5 64.9 51.4 3.7 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.3 15.9 11.4 127.6 72.2 56.7 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.6 15.2 112.8 66.8 52.1 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 16.9 11.7 123.6 71.0 55.0 4.7 8.8 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.5 18.7 115.7 67.9 53.6 5.0 9.1 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.8 13.0 108.9 66.0 49.8 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.6 17.6 12.3 134.0 73.9 58.1 5.0 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.4 12.4 120.9 70.1 54.5 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.1 14.0 113.2 67.2 51.5 5.0 9.1 14.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.5 14.8 13.4 104.8 64.7 49.4 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.0 10.3 11.7 110.5 66.4 53.5 3.3 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 14.3 12.7 107.5 65.9 50.8 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.5 12.8 110.4 66.6 52.1 4.1 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 19.9 16.4 113.9 67.2 52.7 7.3 12.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.2 15.4 11.6 120.5 70.2 53.8 4.5 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------