***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 51.0 50.8 53.5 121.0 70.5 62.8 27.2 36.7 47.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 48.9 50.3 49.0 125.2 72.3 63.3 27.1 35.7 45.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 50.7 56.8 50.1 114.3 66.5 59.2 35.4 45.3 56.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 52.7 56.9 56.0 110.3 64.1 58.4 37.1 47.4 58.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 50.2 53.2 55.2 108.7 63.1 57.2 38.2 46.3 54.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 43.3 40.8 46.3 97.1 54.2 49.2 30.0 38.6 47.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 53.6 55.9 49.6 129.4 74.0 65.2 28.1 37.9 48.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 50.5 64.8 54.6 101.3 57.5 52.2 51.0 60.4 70.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 39.3 41.0 53.3 105.3 60.7 55.6 28.3 35.7 43.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 48.7 48.5 54.6 100.9 57.1 52.6 37.8 45.2 53.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 46.9 47.7 51.8 103.3 59.1 54.3 36.0 43.5 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 35.7 45.6 48.6 99.2 56.0 51.0 36.2 43.0 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 34.4 45.9 51.3 97.1 53.8 48.9 35.3 43.8 53.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 65.4 68.4 59.3 107.3 62.0 55.7 49.5 60.0 71.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 50.7 56.8 52.5 108.4 63.1 57.5 31.3 44.3 60.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 44.4 41.8 47.6 96.5 53.8 49.4 30.7 39.7 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 52.0 54.6 49.9 130.5 74.5 64.6 29.7 38.5 48.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 45.2 45.7 57.7 102.1 58.0 52.9 34.9 42.0 49.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 54.5 54.6 49.2 121.6 70.8 62.0 30.0 39.7 50.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 36.1 57.0 75.5 109.9 63.6 55.9 37.2 47.5 59.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 45.3 48.1 51.4 107.0 61.9 56.4 32.6 41.2 50.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 53.3 55.9 52.1 128.5 74.1 64.1 30.7 39.7 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 50.5 48.9 50.9 117.1 68.5 60.1 29.5 38.0 47.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 54.9 56.1 53.7 104.0 59.6 54.1 42.7 51.1 59.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 54.9 55.0 62.0 121.3 70.9 63.8 30.0 40.0 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 32.0 43.1 48.8 98.5 55.5 50.4 32.4 40.5 49.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 56.7 58.7 58.7 125.3 72.8 64.8 29.9 40.2 52.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 44.4 45.2 48.8 101.3 58.6 53.5 30.5 39.8 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 75.1 76.7 63.6 104.9 60.2 54.3 59.0 69.8 81.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 52.2 52.2 49.7 124.2 71.8 63.2 27.3 36.7 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------