***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 -3.7 -4.4 -2.8 -3.7 13.3 15.5 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 -3.9 -4.3 -2.6 -3.2 15.2 17.8 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.9 19.4 21.5 -0.7 0.7 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -7.0 -6.8 -3.4 -1.8 28.7 30.3 -6.3 -4.5 -2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 -3.9 -3.5 -2.9 -2.3 27.0 28.2 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 -5.5 -7.7 -8.8 -6.0 5.0 7.4 -3.7 -2.3 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 -4.0 -4.4 -2.8 -3.4 14.0 16.4 -2.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -5.3 -6.6 -3.7 -0.9 40.8 41.2 -7.3 -5.7 -4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -2.0 28.9 30.0 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -0.8 -2.0 -3.3 -1.0 39.3 39.9 -2.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -3.4 -3.0 -3.2 -1.9 31.1 32.0 -2.8 -1.3 0.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -3.8 -3.5 -3.7 -1.7 33.5 34.2 -3.6 -2.1 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 -4.2 -3.9 -4.3 -2.3 27.0 28.3 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 0.2 -1.2 -2.6 -1.3 36.6 37.4 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -3.2 -1.7 -1.8 26.1 27.9 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 -3.3 -3.2 -4.4 -2.7 23.6 25.2 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 -3.8 -4.0 -2.6 -2.9 17.9 20.3 -2.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 -2.5 -3.3 -3.4 -0.7 42.8 43.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 -3.5 -3.7 -2.5 -3.0 17.2 19.7 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 -5.6 -6.5 -4.2 -0.6 44.2 44.5 -7.7 -5.8 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 -3.5 -3.5 -2.4 -2.7 21.4 23.2 -2.4 -0.9 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 -3.7 -3.8 -2.3 -2.8 18.7 21.0 -2.4 -1.1 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 -3.1 -3.1 -2.3 -2.5 22.1 24.1 -2.1 -0.7 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -1.9 -2.6 -1.3 35.7 36.7 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 -3.7 -3.9 -3.0 -3.3 17.3 19.2 -2.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 -3.8 -4.0 -5.1 -3.2 19.2 21.5 -2.8 -1.6 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 -4.4 -5.0 -3.2 -3.8 13.5 15.5 -2.5 -0.9 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 -4.7 -4.8 -3.4 -2.3 25.0 27.0 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 -3.5 -4.1 -4.0 -0.4 45.4 45.7 -5.3 -3.7 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 -3.9 -4.3 -2.6 -3.3 14.7 17.2 -2.3 -0.8 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------