***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -5.2 -3.7 -2.9 -0.8 41.2 47.5 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -5.3 -3.6 -2.8 -0.6 43.5 48.1 -4.8 -2.9 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -1.6 -2.8 -0.6 42.9 48.3 -2.7 -0.9 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -7.8 -6.2 -5.6 -0.5 44.0 49.0 -7.3 -5.6 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -5.6 -4.0 -5.2 -0.7 42.7 47.6 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -6.3 -5.1 -7.1 -1.0 39.6 43.9 -5.8 -4.0 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -5.4 -3.8 -2.8 -0.8 40.9 46.5 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -9.3 -7.7 -6.4 -0.6 44.2 47.3 -8.8 -7.2 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -3.1 -4.6 -0.7 42.8 47.4 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -5.4 -3.6 -5.7 -0.6 44.3 47.7 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -5.8 -4.0 -5.9 -0.7 42.8 47.1 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -6.1 -4.5 -6.3 -0.7 43.1 46.8 -5.6 -3.7 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -5.5 -4.1 -6.4 -0.8 42.2 45.7 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -4.2 -2.4 -4.5 -0.4 45.9 48.8 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -5.5 -4.0 -4.6 -0.7 42.3 48.2 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -4.6 -3.1 -6.3 -0.8 42.2 46.6 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -5.3 -3.9 -2.7 -0.7 42.2 47.0 -4.9 -3.0 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -7.5 -5.6 -6.3 -0.4 46.4 48.7 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -5.4 -3.4 -2.8 -0.5 44.7 48.9 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -11.0 -8.1 -7.1 -0.3 46.7 48.2 -10.1 -7.6 -5.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -5.2 -3.6 -3.6 -0.7 42.2 47.8 -4.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 -5.7 -3.9 -2.8 -0.5 44.3 48.4 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -3.5 -3.0 -0.4 45.7 49.3 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -5.4 -3.6 -5.0 -0.5 45.1 48.6 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -3.5 -4.2 -0.8 41.5 48.0 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -2.7 -4.4 -6.5 -0.8 41.9 45.6 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -5.0 -3.4 -3.4 -0.9 41.1 47.4 -4.5 -2.3 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -6.3 -4.6 -5.5 -0.6 43.8 48.7 -5.8 -4.0 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -7.5 -5.3 -6.5 -0.3 47.1 48.8 -6.9 -5.0 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -5.3 -3.5 -2.8 -0.7 42.8 47.8 -4.6 -2.6 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------