***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 2.4 2.8 4.0 -2.1 27.4 28.5 3.5 5.4 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.3 2.6 4.2 -1.9 28.8 29.9 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 4.3 4.8 -1.6 33.8 34.8 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 1.6 0.7 2.8 -0.5 44.6 45.0 -0.7 1.3 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 6.5 5.0 3.9 -0.9 40.1 40.5 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.4 2.8 1.3 -2.6 24.2 25.4 3.8 5.6 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.6 2.1 3.8 -2.2 25.5 26.7 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 0.8 1.1 4.6 0.4 54.6 54.5 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 7.1 6.0 5.0 -0.6 43.7 44.2 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 6.1 6.0 5.0 0.1 51.2 51.2 4.1 5.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 6.4 5.4 4.7 -0.6 43.9 44.2 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 6.4 6.1 4.4 -0.1 48.9 49.1 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 6.3 4.6 4.2 -1.2 38.1 38.7 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 6.8 6.6 6.0 0.1 50.4 50.5 4.5 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 5.2 4.8 4.9 -0.1 48.9 49.0 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 6.9 5.0 3.5 -1.2 37.7 38.3 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.5 3.9 -1.8 29.7 30.8 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 4.5 4.7 4.8 0.4 53.7 53.7 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.3 4.5 -1.6 32.0 33.1 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 3.7 4.2 3.9 0.6 56.2 56.1 1.6 3.5 5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.8 4.7 5.0 -1.2 36.8 37.7 4.2 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.6 3.5 4.6 -1.3 35.3 36.2 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.8 4.1 5.0 -1.1 38.2 38.9 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 7.2 6.5 5.6 -0.2 47.5 47.8 4.8 6.8 8.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.1 3.5 -1.8 30.6 31.5 3.4 5.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.9 4.1 2.8 -1.4 34.5 35.6 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.6 3.0 3.5 -2.3 25.6 26.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 5.9 5.1 3.7 -0.5 45.1 45.4 3.9 5.5 7.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 3.5 4.1 4.6 0.7 57.3 57.1 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.1 2.5 4.2 -2.0 27.8 28.9 3.1 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------