***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.8 3.4 -0.4 45.7 49.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.0 4.0 3.5 -0.2 48.1 50.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.5 3.8 -0.3 47.1 50.2 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -1.3 0.5 0.9 -0.2 47.8 50.7 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.9 2.0 -0.2 48.3 51.0 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.9 1.7 -0.6 44.1 48.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.6 3.4 -0.3 47.0 50.0 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -0.9 2.2 -0.1 49.4 51.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.6 3.0 -0.1 48.6 51.0 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.9 2.7 -0.1 49.2 51.3 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.2 2.2 -0.1 48.5 51.4 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.1 2.2 -0.1 48.6 51.5 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.8 1.9 -0.2 47.6 51.0 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.1 3.6 -0.2 48.5 50.1 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.5 1.6 -0.3 47.3 50.8 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.4 1.9 -0.2 47.6 50.9 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.7 3.6 -0.1 49.1 50.8 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.4 3.0 2.9 0.0 49.5 51.2 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.7 3.7 -0.2 48.3 50.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.3 2.0 1.7 0.1 51.1 52.1 0.1 1.9 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.2 3.3 -0.2 47.4 50.3 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.4 3.7 0.0 49.9 51.4 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.6 4.0 -0.2 48.4 50.9 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.4 5.7 3.5 -0.1 48.7 50.5 3.8 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.0 2.0 -0.4 45.9 49.6 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.2 1.9 -0.1 48.7 51.8 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.0 2.9 -0.5 45.1 49.3 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.3 1.3 -0.2 47.5 50.6 3.1 4.5 5.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.1 2.1 2.5 0.0 49.7 51.3 0.3 2.1 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.0 3.4 -0.3 47.0 50.2 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------