***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.1 3.2 -0.4 45.4 49.5 1.6 3.7 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 2.9 3.2 -0.3 46.3 49.5 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.6 3.7 -0.3 46.7 49.8 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.1 0.7 -0.3 46.2 50.1 -1.3 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.3 1.8 -0.3 46.5 49.7 2.6 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.7 1.7 -0.5 44.5 48.4 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.6 2.4 3.1 -0.5 45.0 48.6 1.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -1.0 2.2 -0.1 48.8 51.0 -2.4 -0.9 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.1 2.8 -0.2 47.4 50.1 3.2 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.6 2.6 -0.1 49.0 51.0 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.4 2.0 -0.4 46.3 49.3 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.8 2.1 -0.3 46.7 49.8 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.4 1.8 -0.3 46.4 50.0 2.8 4.8 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.3 3.7 0.0 49.5 50.4 3.1 5.4 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.8 1.3 -0.4 45.3 49.8 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.0 1.7 -0.4 45.6 49.1 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.7 2.3 3.3 -0.4 45.9 48.7 0.8 2.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.9 3.1 3.0 0.2 51.8 52.8 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.4 3.4 -0.3 47.1 49.8 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.9 1.8 1.9 0.3 53.6 54.4 -0.5 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.5 3.2 -0.3 46.4 49.7 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.1 3.4 -0.3 46.9 49.2 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.4 3.8 -0.2 47.9 49.8 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.6 3.5 0.0 50.0 51.2 3.2 5.6 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.1 1.8 -0.4 45.3 49.7 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.9 1.7 -0.3 46.8 50.5 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.9 2.8 -0.4 45.2 49.4 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.1 1.0 -0.4 45.7 49.6 2.6 4.6 6.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.4 2.1 2.7 0.3 53.0 53.8 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.2 2.8 3.1 -0.4 46.1 49.5 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------