***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.2 1.9 3.9 29.3 24.7 20.3 2.8 5.3 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 2.0 1.6 3.2 27.0 23.8 19.3 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 1.9 1.1 3.2 24.2 21.1 17.9 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 2.8 1.8 3.0 19.7 14.3 13.5 4.5 7.7 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 2.2 1.7 4.2 27.2 19.8 17.7 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.8 3.1 22.1 16.5 15.1 2.3 4.8 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.1 2.2 3.6 30.8 28.0 21.7 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 4.3 3.0 3.7 21.8 15.0 14.3 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.3 3.4 22.5 16.7 15.3 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 2.1 1.1 3.9 23.1 15.4 15.0 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 2.0 1.2 3.5 22.3 16.2 14.9 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 1.9 1.3 3.1 20.8 15.3 14.0 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 2.8 2.1 4.1 24.8 17.3 16.1 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 2.9 1.5 3.3 19.2 14.6 13.6 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.3 1.6 10.2 10.4 8.9 2.3 5.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 2.1 1.5 3.3 21.1 15.7 14.5 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.2 2.1 3.3 30.0 26.1 20.3 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.2 3.8 21.5 13.9 14.0 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 2.4 1.9 3.0 24.1 21.4 18.0 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 2.9 2.0 4.4 21.3 13.9 13.7 4.7 7.5 11.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 2.5 2.0 3.4 23.5 19.3 16.7 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 2.6 2.0 2.8 23.4 21.2 17.4 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.0 1.3 2.9 21.5 19.0 16.4 2.9 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 2.6 1.6 3.3 20.2 15.6 14.4 4.3 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 2.3 2.3 5.2 34.9 26.9 22.3 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 2.2 1.6 3.2 22.3 17.8 15.6 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 2.7 2.8 4.8 35.0 27.8 22.8 3.4 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.6 2.2 15.1 12.2 11.2 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 3.7 2.2 4.0 21.3 13.6 13.6 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.3 26.5 23.9 19.3 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------