***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.6 12.1 101.2 62.6 51.0 4.1 7.8 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.7 9.3 87.6 57.4 44.6 4.3 7.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.7 11.8 100.4 61.9 50.0 4.5 8.8 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.7 13.9 14.2 101.8 62.8 51.2 6.4 10.1 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.9 14.2 103.9 63.3 52.8 6.2 9.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.4 14.7 119.9 69.6 54.3 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.6 8.8 87.1 57.5 45.0 4.7 7.9 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.9 20.9 15.2 114.1 67.3 54.3 12.4 16.2 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.1 14.5 108.7 65.2 54.8 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.0 16.0 15.6 116.0 67.8 56.3 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.4 12.2 14.8 109.9 65.5 52.8 4.9 8.1 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.6 12.9 14.2 110.0 65.6 51.7 6.1 9.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.8 15.4 16.2 124.8 71.0 57.4 6.5 9.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.2 19.3 15.5 106.2 64.2 52.3 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.0 13.8 13.1 102.1 65.4 50.9 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.1 15.3 118.1 68.7 55.2 5.7 9.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.7 8.2 79.0 53.5 43.0 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.5 16.3 117.5 68.2 57.6 6.9 10.9 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.6 10.2 91.8 58.8 45.8 4.6 8.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.9 18.8 17.6 112.0 66.2 54.7 7.9 12.6 18.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.8 12.6 13.6 106.1 64.2 53.6 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.3 8.9 9.3 84.4 56.5 44.8 5.2 7.8 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.1 11.6 94.6 59.2 47.3 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.1 18.1 14.9 110.8 65.8 55.0 7.4 12.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.7 14.2 102.3 62.6 52.3 3.7 6.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.7 12.5 13.9 108.1 65.3 50.5 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.7 12.9 101.9 62.7 51.6 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.9 14.0 108.7 66.5 52.4 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.7 27.1 17.1 115.6 67.2 56.1 11.6 18.0 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.0 9.9 93.0 59.6 46.6 3.8 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------