***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.1 12.4 111.0 67.2 53.0 3.5 5.9 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.0 10.4 108.4 66.6 50.9 4.3 6.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.1 11.6 105.7 65.2 51.4 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 16.0 13.8 117.7 69.1 54.3 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.8 16.8 13.9 111.7 67.1 52.9 7.0 11.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.2 17.8 15.5 138.8 75.1 54.2 6.0 9.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.4 10.5 110.5 67.4 51.1 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.5 20.7 14.6 118.7 69.1 53.3 9.0 13.6 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.4 14.0 105.5 64.9 52.0 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 13.4 14.5 109.9 66.1 52.5 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.4 13.6 117.7 68.9 53.0 5.7 9.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.8 13.9 125.3 71.2 53.9 5.8 9.1 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.5 17.9 15.6 132.3 73.3 54.8 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.8 15.1 13.6 102.4 63.4 51.3 7.9 11.5 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 16.0 13.5 122.3 71.0 56.1 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.0 14.5 129.0 72.4 54.7 5.6 8.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.2 9.7 100.9 64.0 48.6 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.2 14.9 107.6 65.2 52.2 4.2 7.0 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.6 10.4 106.9 65.7 51.0 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.4 18.8 114.4 67.7 52.7 6.4 9.4 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.3 12.1 13.2 105.7 65.3 52.5 4.8 8.0 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.2 9.8 97.1 62.1 48.3 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.1 10.9 104.7 64.5 51.0 4.0 6.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.3 13.1 103.4 63.8 51.2 5.1 8.5 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.9 15.3 14.2 111.7 67.3 53.4 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.3 15.7 139.4 75.2 55.5 5.7 8.7 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.9 13.1 111.2 67.2 53.0 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 14.9 13.4 122.3 70.6 54.5 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 18.3 15.9 109.0 65.5 52.3 8.5 12.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.9 10.8 110.0 67.0 51.7 4.1 6.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------