***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.6 12.5 10.8 88.3 57.6 46.0 5.6 10.0 16.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.8 12.3 9.2 89.6 58.7 47.6 5.6 9.7 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.9 13.8 10.7 89.0 57.9 47.3 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.7 10.2 75.2 51.5 43.7 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.4 9.4 10.3 75.4 50.7 43.1 5.2 9.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.0 9.1 10.4 86.3 56.3 45.6 4.2 7.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.6 9.1 89.3 58.9 47.2 4.3 8.5 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.8 12.0 10.7 78.6 52.5 44.4 6.6 11.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.2 10.8 76.7 51.1 43.1 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.9 11.2 78.9 52.0 44.2 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.4 9.9 77.9 52.2 44.4 5.0 8.9 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.8 9.6 78.9 52.7 44.5 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.7 10.6 82.7 54.1 45.4 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.5 16.8 13.0 89.0 57.5 47.5 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 8.6 9.6 73.3 53.5 44.1 3.6 7.5 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.8 9.9 80.0 53.3 45.2 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.3 9.0 91.1 59.8 47.5 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.4 12.3 84.4 54.5 46.1 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.2 9.7 90.9 59.2 48.5 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.2 14.7 82.3 54.2 45.2 4.7 8.9 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.2 10.5 79.1 52.7 44.4 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.2 9.5 92.3 60.0 48.1 5.3 9.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.9 11.8 10.8 91.7 59.5 49.3 5.7 9.3 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.8 11.7 86.5 56.3 47.0 6.7 10.9 16.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.4 11.0 11.7 84.0 54.9 45.1 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.5 10.1 83.9 56.0 45.2 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.0 11.6 11.3 88.1 57.0 45.7 5.0 9.3 15.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.3 9.4 75.0 52.5 44.1 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 14.4 13.3 85.8 55.2 45.9 7.1 12.3 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.8 9.8 89.7 58.8 47.6 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------