***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 43.9 32.8 39.1 80.7 39.6 40.1 29.2 38.7 49.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 26.1 29.8 32.1 75.6 36.8 37.6 27.7 36.9 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 53.2 39.6 37.4 77.6 37.3 38.2 36.9 47.4 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 36.2 38.8 41.2 75.8 35.0 35.9 37.5 47.5 58.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 37.7 40.3 42.5 77.2 34.9 36.3 39.2 47.6 56.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 29.0 36.5 43.7 88.6 46.7 42.8 29.8 38.2 47.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.7 32.3 32.0 77.1 38.6 38.6 29.1 39.0 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 48.2 52.7 44.2 78.7 35.6 36.3 51.1 61.0 71.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.5 29.4 42.7 76.7 34.3 36.1 28.7 36.2 44.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 35.8 38.3 45.2 78.3 34.5 36.3 37.6 45.6 54.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 34.2 37.4 41.8 78.3 35.7 36.8 36.0 44.0 52.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 33.2 36.9 40.8 80.0 37.4 37.4 35.1 42.6 50.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 34.8 40.5 46.5 85.7 42.9 41.3 35.4 44.3 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 49.2 51.3 45.4 75.8 34.1 35.9 50.6 62.2 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 29.6 33.9 37.8 72.1 36.6 36.0 31.3 44.6 60.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 29.6 34.6 43.1 82.8 40.9 39.9 30.6 39.5 49.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 27.7 30.6 30.2 73.8 36.0 36.5 29.1 38.2 48.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 34.0 35.4 47.3 78.9 34.5 36.3 34.7 42.4 50.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 29.2 32.9 33.3 75.7 36.5 37.4 31.0 41.2 52.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 34.0 38.5 55.6 78.2 34.9 35.4 37.2 48.1 59.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 32.7 34.2 40.8 76.6 35.1 36.5 33.2 42.1 51.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 28.6 31.0 31.4 72.2 34.6 35.6 30.1 39.4 49.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 28.4 31.3 36.1 75.6 35.6 36.8 29.9 38.7 48.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 57.4 44.7 43.0 77.0 34.4 36.2 44.1 52.9 61.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 31.2 35.3 45.3 81.7 39.4 39.8 31.6 41.8 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 30.4 36.6 42.8 85.1 42.9 40.2 32.0 40.0 48.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 31.6 36.5 42.2 82.6 40.7 40.8 31.8 42.9 55.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 29.1 32.9 39.1 76.6 37.6 37.3 30.3 39.9 50.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 57.5 61.0 50.3 79.0 34.6 35.9 60.2 71.0 82.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 27.4 30.9 33.7 77.0 37.9 38.5 28.2 38.2 49.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------