***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 -0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 66.4 65.7 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.9 75.0 73.8 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 2.0 2.2 0.7 1.5 68.2 67.7 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 -1.9 -1.8 -0.4 2.9 77.5 77.1 -6.9 -5.0 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 0.8 0.6 -0.7 2.3 71.7 71.4 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 0.2 0.2 -1.9 3.1 76.8 76.5 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 1.1 1.6 1.1 2.0 76.3 75.1 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 -3.7 -3.8 -1.8 2.8 74.7 74.4 -8.0 -6.3 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 1.5 1.4 -0.3 2.2 71.6 71.4 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 0.9 0.7 -1.3 2.5 73.1 72.9 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 1.1 0.7 -0.9 2.4 72.9 72.6 -3.4 -1.7 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 0.2 -0.2 -1.5 2.6 72.8 72.7 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 0.6 0.2 -1.8 2.2 70.7 70.5 -3.8 -2.0 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 1.5 1.4 -0.2 2.2 72.8 72.4 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.4 74.9 74.3 -2.8 -1.3 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 1.4 1.1 -1.3 2.6 73.0 72.9 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 1.1 1.7 1.2 2.4 80.3 79.0 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 -0.6 -1.0 -1.9 2.2 72.1 71.8 -4.8 -3.2 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.7 73.1 72.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -3.2 -3.4 -3.1 2.5 73.0 72.6 -8.2 -6.2 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.6 67.8 67.5 -2.9 -1.1 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 1.1 1.4 1.2 2.1 77.6 76.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.7 70.9 70.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 0.8 0.7 -0.5 2.1 72.4 72.1 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.8 69.6 69.1 -3.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 0.4 0.2 -1.6 2.4 72.6 72.3 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.5 68.4 67.8 -3.1 -1.1 0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 0.2 0.2 -0.1 2.8 76.4 76.0 -4.5 -2.8 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 -1.5 -1.9 -2.5 2.5 72.7 72.4 -5.9 -4.2 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.6 72.0 71.1 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------