***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 5.4 6.5 5.8 1.2 63.7 62.9 3.3 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 4.8 6.2 5.9 1.4 67.1 66.0 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 6.3 7.5 5.9 1.2 64.2 63.3 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 3.4 3.9 4.3 2.6 75.3 74.1 -1.2 0.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.2 5.0 2.1 71.0 69.8 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 7.4 7.7 4.3 2.4 73.5 72.5 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 49 51 100 5.9 6.1 5.7 1.4 67.6 66.5 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 2.2 2.8 4.9 2.6 76.4 74.7 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.9 5.9 2.1 71.8 70.2 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.6 8.0 5.3 2.3 72.9 71.3 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.4 5.1 2.2 72.0 70.8 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 8.3 8.8 5.0 2.5 75.0 73.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.1 5.0 2.0 71.1 69.9 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 8.2 8.5 6.0 1.8 69.1 67.6 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 6.8 7.4 6.3 3.1 80.7 79.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.9 4.8 2.2 71.7 70.6 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.2 5.7 1.7 71.0 69.6 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.0 5.1 2.2 72.0 70.5 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 5.5 6.9 5.9 1.4 66.6 65.6 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 5.6 6.0 4.1 2.6 76.5 75.0 0.9 2.8 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 48 52 100 7.6 7.8 6.0 1.6 67.3 66.1 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 6.5 6.8 5.9 1.7 70.5 69.1 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 5.4 6.8 5.9 1.4 66.6 65.6 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 8.5 8.7 5.8 1.8 68.5 67.2 4.3 6.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 6.6 6.6 5.1 1.6 67.0 66.0 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 7.0 7.2 4.5 2.1 73.7 72.4 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 6.1 7.2 5.4 1.2 64.1 63.3 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 7.2 7.7 5.2 2.9 77.1 75.6 3.2 4.9 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.9 5.1 4.6 2.3 73.6 72.2 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 5.0 6.2 5.9 1.3 65.5 64.6 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------