***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.0 4.8 2.0 68.5 65.5 2.2 4.0 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.9 4.7 2.2 70.2 66.9 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.5 4.9 2.0 68.2 65.4 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.0 2.5 1.8 67.1 64.7 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.5 3.0 1.7 65.6 63.4 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.7 2.5 1.6 65.2 62.6 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.5 4.6 2.2 69.8 66.6 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.0 2.6 1.4 64.2 62.2 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.3 3.9 1.7 65.5 63.2 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.4 3.2 1.5 64.6 62.5 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 7.2 6.8 2.8 1.5 64.8 62.7 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.5 2.7 1.4 64.1 62.1 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.4 2.4 1.4 63.9 61.9 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 8.1 7.8 4.4 1.9 66.9 64.4 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 4.9 4.8 3.0 1.9 68.3 65.5 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.0 2.6 1.6 65.0 62.8 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.3 4.7 2.3 70.8 67.2 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.8 4.3 3.2 1.5 64.3 62.2 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.7 4.9 2.2 70.0 66.8 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.7 3.1 1.7 1.3 63.4 61.3 -0.2 1.7 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.1 7.0 4.4 1.8 66.9 64.3 3.2 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.1 4.9 2.4 71.7 67.8 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.3 5.0 2.1 69.3 66.2 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.6 4.2 1.7 66.0 63.6 3.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.6 3.4 1.9 68.3 65.4 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.2 2.2 1.3 63.4 61.6 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.2 4.1 1.9 68.6 65.5 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.7 2.8 1.8 67.1 64.6 2.9 4.3 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.7 3.2 2.6 1.4 63.6 61.7 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.9 4.8 2.2 69.6 66.5 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------