***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.0 5.2 2.0 75.8 73.2 3.2 4.3 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 5.3 5.7 5.2 2.2 77.4 74.5 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 7.0 7.3 5.3 2.1 76.3 73.6 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 1.9 2.4 3.3 2.3 79.1 76.1 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 6.5 6.9 3.8 2.2 77.5 74.6 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.5 3.3 2.2 78.0 74.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 5.1 5.4 5.0 2.1 77.0 74.1 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 0.4 0.9 3.5 2.2 79.0 75.5 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.8 4.7 2.2 78.1 74.9 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 6.4 6.9 4.1 2.2 78.2 75.0 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 6.8 7.2 3.8 2.1 77.0 74.1 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 6.9 7.4 3.6 2.1 77.5 74.3 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 6.6 7.0 3.4 1.9 75.6 72.5 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 7.4 8.0 5.1 2.2 78.1 75.3 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 5.1 5.7 4.1 2.5 80.7 77.4 3.0 3.9 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.7 3.5 2.1 76.6 73.7 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 4.8 5.3 5.1 2.2 78.9 75.6 2.4 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 4.4 4.8 4.0 2.1 77.9 74.7 2.2 3.2 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.4 5.4 2.2 77.6 74.8 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 3.7 4.2 2.7 2.1 78.8 75.1 0.9 2.1 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 6.8 7.2 5.1 2.1 77.1 74.2 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 5.5 6.1 5.3 2.3 79.9 76.4 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.3 5.5 2.2 77.8 75.0 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.0 4.9 2.1 77.4 74.5 4.6 5.8 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.8 4.0 2.1 77.3 74.3 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 5.9 6.2 3.1 1.9 76.1 72.7 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.1 4.6 2.0 76.1 73.4 4.1 5.2 6.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 6.0 6.5 3.7 2.4 79.5 76.3 3.9 4.8 5.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.1 77.7 74.4 1.1 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 5.4 5.7 5.2 2.1 76.6 73.9 2.9 4.0 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------