***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 1.6 2.3 3.2 36.2 33.3 25.5 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 1.7 2.0 2.9 33.7 30.2 23.0 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.2 3.1 3.7 39.8 34.3 26.2 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 3.0 4.2 4.3 38.2 30.6 24.4 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 3.3 4.5 5.3 45.6 34.3 27.7 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 1.6 2.0 4.4 37.1 30.7 24.0 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 1.9 2.2 2.7 32.5 29.6 22.9 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 7.0 9.7 6.5 52.6 39.9 29.7 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.5 3.7 5.3 48.9 38.6 30.5 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.4 6.5 53.9 41.3 32.2 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.0 5.6 51.8 41.4 32.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.1 4.7 5.4 48.9 38.1 28.1 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.5 4.5 5.5 48.1 37.5 30.0 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.2 6.1 5.6 48.5 39.6 31.2 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.5 1.4 2.9 26.0 23.3 17.0 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.9 4.1 5.0 47.0 37.0 29.2 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 2.1 2.4 2.7 31.5 28.5 22.4 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.4 5.1 6.9 54.4 41.0 32.5 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.5 3.3 3.2 36.1 32.5 24.7 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 4.4 5.7 7.5 50.2 35.7 27.7 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.9 4.2 4.4 44.3 37.6 29.2 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.3 2.8 3.1 33.7 30.9 23.9 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.8 41.0 35.6 27.4 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.2 6.2 5.6 50.6 40.2 31.8 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 1.7 2.1 4.0 36.3 26.9 22.6 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 2.7 3.5 4.5 37.8 29.7 22.6 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 1.5 2.0 3.4 35.2 29.5 23.9 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 1.9 2.4 3.9 34.9 28.8 21.9 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 8.6 7.2 53.7 40.0 31.7 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.9 35.0 31.6 23.9 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------