***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.7 12.3 129.6 72.5 58.6 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.8 14.0 11.5 131.0 73.0 58.3 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.5 12.3 124.1 70.9 56.8 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 16.6 13.3 120.9 70.4 55.4 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.6 16.0 13.3 114.6 67.8 52.8 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.0 12.0 106.1 66.1 50.9 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.5 14.9 11.3 134.0 73.8 59.0 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.9 20.3 13.2 106.6 65.2 51.8 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.4 13.6 114.3 67.6 53.9 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 16.6 13.7 111.1 66.5 52.9 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.1 12.0 112.8 67.4 52.6 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.9 11.5 104.0 64.7 51.3 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.6 11.3 101.0 63.8 49.9 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.2 23.1 14.8 125.2 71.1 56.4 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.7 11.9 104.0 66.1 52.2 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.5 11.4 109.3 66.6 51.8 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.7 13.1 10.9 129.9 72.8 58.3 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.7 14.8 110.8 66.1 53.0 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 15.7 11.8 131.0 73.0 58.4 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 18.9 17.0 106.1 64.9 52.1 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 16.4 13.0 119.6 69.4 56.0 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.2 12.2 11.5 127.7 72.1 58.8 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.5 12.6 130.9 72.9 58.0 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.8 20.0 14.1 119.0 69.0 54.9 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.7 15.9 14.3 123.5 70.8 57.1 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.1 10.9 95.8 62.1 49.3 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.7 18.0 13.7 130.1 72.7 58.8 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.1 13.9 12.2 112.1 68.1 53.0 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.1 26.7 15.7 110.1 66.0 52.7 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 14.3 15.5 11.7 130.7 72.9 58.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------