***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.5 13.2 111.7 67.5 53.7 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.7 11.5 103.0 65.0 51.9 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.4 15.9 13.5 114.1 68.3 55.4 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.2 14.6 13.7 106.6 66.0 55.1 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 16.6 14.6 112.6 67.7 56.3 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.8 13.9 100.9 64.0 54.0 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.3 11.6 104.2 65.2 51.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.9 19.5 15.7 109.7 66.7 54.8 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.2 15.4 117.4 69.0 56.8 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 13.7 16.1 116.0 68.5 56.2 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 15.9 13.8 110.1 67.0 55.7 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.5 12.9 13.5 105.3 65.4 54.1 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.7 13.6 104.1 64.8 55.2 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 20.0 19.7 16.2 119.1 69.7 58.2 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.6 11.8 87.8 60.8 50.2 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 12.8 12.9 104.1 65.0 54.9 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.7 11.1 102.6 64.8 50.9 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.9 17.4 118.7 69.3 57.1 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.6 12.0 106.8 66.2 53.3 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.4 19.6 107.7 66.2 54.9 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.2 14.7 14.7 118.8 69.6 57.3 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.3 11.4 103.2 65.1 52.8 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.8 13.0 113.3 68.2 55.9 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.3 15.9 120.3 69.9 57.7 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.8 15.9 15.1 111.0 67.1 55.2 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.9 13.3 100.0 63.7 53.4 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.0 14.3 110.3 66.9 53.6 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.3 12.5 96.6 63.3 53.0 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 20.9 18.2 115.6 68.4 56.9 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.3 12.0 105.1 65.5 52.2 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------