***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 14.0 12.0 10.5 108.4 65.8 50.6 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 10.1 9.4 101.5 64.1 50.2 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.4 9.9 100.3 62.8 49.3 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.7 9.7 92.1 60.1 46.1 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.7 10.1 92.0 59.3 46.2 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.5 8.8 72.4 51.9 42.4 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.7 11.4 9.7 102.0 64.4 50.4 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 13.3 10.7 84.1 56.4 43.4 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.8 10.8 93.3 59.5 47.2 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.3 11.2 89.4 58.2 45.8 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.0 9.5 9.1 84.1 56.9 43.9 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.0 8.8 78.6 54.6 42.0 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.1 8.9 75.7 53.5 42.9 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.3 14.4 11.6 99.3 62.5 50.2 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.9 8.4 81.3 57.3 42.7 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.7 8.4 78.3 54.9 42.8 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.8 9.3 101.0 64.5 50.3 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.9 12.5 91.7 58.7 46.3 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.3 9.3 100.3 63.5 50.1 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.8 14.4 88.9 57.8 44.2 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.7 10.5 98.3 61.6 48.0 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.8 9.4 101.2 64.3 50.6 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.6 9.6 98.8 62.7 50.1 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.4 11.2 94.2 60.1 47.8 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.1 13.0 11.6 105.7 64.4 49.9 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.3 8.4 72.1 52.2 41.7 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 12.6 11.5 108.1 65.5 51.0 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.0 8.6 81.2 56.9 43.6 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 13.6 13.3 91.3 58.9 45.9 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.1 9.7 103.1 64.4 50.6 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------