***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 41.1 41.5 39.2 98.5 58.0 53.6 26.6 36.2 47.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 39.7 38.0 35.3 93.6 55.1 50.7 25.5 34.7 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 50.9 50.5 39.4 96.5 56.5 52.6 35.9 46.1 57.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 51.7 48.9 41.1 89.8 52.2 48.9 37.6 47.6 58.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 50.1 47.8 43.3 91.7 51.9 49.1 38.5 46.9 55.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 41.8 34.2 39.1 79.7 44.2 42.6 28.4 37.2 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 43.0 41.7 35.3 94.4 55.6 51.0 27.6 38.0 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 66.2 63.1 46.0 89.0 50.7 47.2 53.6 62.6 72.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 38.7 38.3 45.1 95.1 54.5 51.6 28.4 36.0 44.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 48.6 47.4 47.4 93.5 53.3 50.2 38.4 45.9 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 46.8 44.5 40.5 90.4 51.8 48.8 35.8 43.7 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 46.6 42.1 39.2 85.0 48.3 45.4 34.6 43.0 52.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 47.5 41.2 39.2 82.9 46.6 44.9 33.8 43.2 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 64.7 65.6 48.2 99.0 57.5 53.9 48.8 60.4 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 50.8 40.5 35.1 75.4 44.6 41.7 32.4 44.5 58.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 43.5 39.1 37.8 85.3 48.7 46.4 31.0 39.9 49.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 40.9 39.1 33.9 92.1 54.6 50.0 26.1 36.0 47.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 45.0 43.9 51.6 95.0 54.2 51.0 34.7 42.1 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 43.9 42.6 36.3 94.7 55.7 51.5 28.6 38.7 50.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 54.5 50.0 58.6 89.4 51.0 47.3 39.5 49.5 60.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 45.2 45.4 42.6 97.2 56.4 52.9 32.7 41.8 51.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 40.6 38.3 35.5 91.8 54.1 49.9 26.2 35.9 46.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 40.9 41.1 39.1 97.2 57.0 53.0 28.5 37.1 47.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 54.8 55.4 46.8 97.5 56.2 52.8 43.3 51.9 61.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 47.6 46.0 44.9 95.5 55.2 51.5 31.5 42.3 54.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 43.5 34.9 37.0 77.0 42.5 41.0 29.8 39.1 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 47.0 46.4 42.9 97.8 57.1 52.9 29.9 41.1 54.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 45.0 39.5 37.1 81.4 47.5 44.7 31.7 40.9 51.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 74.4 72.4 54.5 93.8 53.6 50.1 60.3 70.4 80.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.8 40.4 36.3 95.2 56.0 51.7 26.4 36.4 48.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------