***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.5 7.0 1.9 72.6 71.2 3.3 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 6.7 6.8 7.2 1.9 72.6 71.4 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 8.0 8.1 7.3 1.7 68.9 67.7 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 1.2 0.6 2.2 -0.1 48.9 48.9 -1.2 0.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 7.5 7.6 5.3 1.4 65.8 64.5 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.6 4.9 2.2 73.2 72.0 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.8 7.3 7.4 2.4 77.9 76.3 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 2.0 2.2 5.3 2.2 71.4 70.2 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 8.3 8.3 6.3 1.5 67.4 65.9 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.5 5.8 1.9 68.9 67.5 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.2 6.3 2.0 70.7 68.7 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 8.4 8.8 6.0 2.4 74.8 73.0 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 8.5 9.6 7.4 3.1 81.0 78.9 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 8.3 8.4 7.2 1.9 69.0 67.6 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 4.9 4.8 4.5 0.2 53.1 52.9 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 8.7 9.0 5.9 2.2 72.9 70.8 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 6.3 6.5 6.9 2.1 74.0 72.8 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.6 5.4 1.8 67.8 66.7 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.4 7.2 1.8 70.7 69.5 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.3 4.7 2.3 71.5 70.7 0.9 2.8 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 7.8 7.7 6.9 1.5 66.7 65.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.8 6.9 7.0 1.8 71.2 70.0 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.3 7.4 1.9 70.9 69.5 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.7 6.9 1.8 68.4 67.2 4.3 6.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.7 5.8 1.5 67.7 66.5 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 7.5 8.3 6.2 3.1 82.1 80.7 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 8.3 8.7 7.0 2.2 75.5 73.9 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 5.3 4.9 3.3 0.1 50.6 50.6 3.2 4.9 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.0 5.5 2.3 72.3 71.0 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.1 7.2 2.0 73.3 72.0 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------