***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.1 4.8 1.0 60.8 59.3 2.2 4.0 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.8 4.7 1.0 60.2 59.0 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.4 5.0 0.8 58.5 57.9 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.5 1.0 1.9 0.6 56.5 57.1 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.7 3.2 0.8 58.4 58.4 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.9 5.2 3.1 1.0 60.4 59.5 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.6 4.8 1.0 61.3 59.8 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.4 -0.3 3.3 1.0 60.8 59.7 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.5 4.0 0.8 58.6 58.3 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 7.0 5.9 3.8 1.0 60.2 59.2 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.4 6.3 3.5 1.0 60.2 59.6 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 7.2 6.2 3.5 1.0 60.8 60.1 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.3 3.3 1.2 62.7 61.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.8 4.6 0.9 58.9 58.1 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.6 2.5 0.3 53.4 55.3 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.6 6.6 3.2 1.0 61.0 60.0 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.2 4.7 0.9 60.1 58.8 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 4.1 4.1 1.1 61.6 60.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.4 4.8 0.9 59.2 58.3 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 3.7 3.1 2.8 1.2 62.9 60.8 -0.2 1.7 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.1 4.5 0.8 58.4 58.0 3.2 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.8 4.6 0.8 58.8 57.9 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.0 5.0 0.8 58.1 57.7 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.7 4.5 0.9 59.4 58.5 3.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.6 4.9 3.4 1.0 60.8 59.4 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.0 5.3 3.2 1.1 63.5 61.9 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.1 6.4 4.4 1.1 62.1 60.0 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.7 2.2 0.5 55.2 56.3 2.9 4.3 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.7 3.1 3.8 1.2 62.7 60.9 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.9 4.7 1.0 60.3 59.0 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------