***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.9 4.2 0.8 58.5 57.6 1.7 3.8 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.4 4.1 0.8 58.3 57.5 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 4.4 0.7 57.1 56.8 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.3 53.1 55.1 -1.2 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 2.6 0.6 56.4 57.1 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.6 2.8 1.2 61.2 59.4 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.3 4.2 0.9 59.7 58.4 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -0.1 2.9 1.1 60.4 59.1 -2.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.6 3.6 0.8 57.8 57.4 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.9 3.4 1.0 60.0 58.7 2.7 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.9 2.9 0.8 58.3 58.2 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.4 2.9 0.9 58.7 58.3 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.2 2.9 1.2 61.9 60.3 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.1 4.4 1.1 60.0 58.3 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 49.8 53.2 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.7 2.7 0.9 59.3 58.7 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.8 4.1 4.2 0.9 59.2 57.5 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 4.1 3.8 1.3 62.1 59.8 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 4.3 0.8 57.5 57.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.7 3.2 2.7 1.6 65.4 62.1 -0.6 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.9 4.0 0.7 57.1 56.8 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.7 4.2 0.8 58.6 57.3 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.8 4.6 0.7 57.2 56.7 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.2 4.2 1.0 59.7 58.3 3.4 5.9 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.5 2.8 0.8 58.1 57.4 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.4 5.6 2.7 1.1 61.8 60.3 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.2 3.9 0.9 59.6 58.1 2.8 5.0 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.2 1.5 0.2 51.6 54.0 2.8 5.0 7.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.7 3.5 3.5 1.5 63.7 61.0 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.4 4.1 0.8 58.1 57.7 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------