***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 16.3 20.2 16.2 146.7 76.9 64.5 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.1 15.3 13.5 142.7 76.0 61.4 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.9 21.3 15.4 140.1 75.4 61.6 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 16.7 20.6 19.8 156.3 79.0 62.3 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 17.5 21.1 18.8 150.6 77.8 66.0 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.9 15.6 15.4 139.2 75.1 64.1 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.8 15.6 13.4 141.4 75.6 60.9 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.7 22.8 16.5 126.5 71.6 58.8 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.8 17.0 17.3 139.3 75.2 62.6 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 18.4 20.3 17.2 134.8 74.0 61.5 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.5 17.5 17.1 137.8 74.7 62.2 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.9 15.7 15.5 131.3 73.0 60.0 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 15.9 18.5 16.5 139.8 75.3 63.9 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 22.5 25.9 18.0 137.7 74.8 62.2 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 18.2 27.3 22.3 189.6 83.7 67.8 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 14.5 16.9 16.4 141.8 75.8 63.5 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.5 13.9 12.8 137.1 74.6 59.1 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.4 18.1 16.5 124.9 71.3 59.9 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.5 17.7 14.1 144.4 76.4 61.6 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 15.0 21.0 20.3 118.2 69.3 60.1 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.9 20.1 17.1 142.0 75.9 63.2 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.0 14.3 14.2 147.8 77.1 62.0 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 13.3 15.9 15.0 142.6 76.0 61.4 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 20.5 22.7 16.6 131.7 73.1 60.6 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.6 21.3 20.1 155.4 79.0 67.4 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.8 15.8 16.5 133.2 73.6 61.6 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 17.0 20.5 17.1 144.5 76.3 64.5 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.1 20.4 20.5 179.0 82.1 66.7 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.6 28.8 17.1 119.4 69.5 59.2 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.0 17.0 13.9 141.4 75.7 61.6 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------