***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.2 10.2 99.5 63.7 53.8 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.5 11.4 8.9 99.9 64.2 54.1 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.2 14.4 10.3 102.8 64.9 53.8 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.4 11.3 95.2 62.6 49.0 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.0 11.5 100.3 64.0 51.3 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.9 10.6 94.3 61.8 49.6 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.8 11.9 8.7 99.0 64.2 54.7 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.4 11.5 95.0 61.9 50.3 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.4 11.9 101.0 63.8 51.1 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.6 11.9 97.9 62.7 50.8 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.2 10.9 98.2 62.9 49.7 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.1 10.7 97.8 62.8 49.6 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.5 10.8 96.6 61.9 48.7 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.1 16.4 11.8 95.1 62.2 52.6 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.8 11.9 101.4 65.6 48.9 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 12.1 10.7 98.2 62.6 49.1 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.7 8.9 101.3 64.8 53.7 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.8 12.1 97.1 62.2 50.9 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.9 9.2 100.5 64.3 53.8 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.0 14.6 94.3 61.6 51.2 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.7 11.2 101.9 64.2 52.4 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.3 9.4 101.1 64.8 53.1 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.5 10.2 101.9 64.7 54.0 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.7 11.6 99.5 63.4 52.3 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.3 14.2 11.3 97.9 63.2 53.5 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.7 11.2 98.1 63.1 50.6 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.3 10.4 96.2 62.6 53.4 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.4 13.7 11.3 100.0 64.4 50.0 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 17.3 12.3 93.1 60.8 50.3 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.7 9.2 98.5 63.7 53.6 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------