***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 4.0 5.8 5.0 53.3 40.2 32.9 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.6 5.7 4.9 60.3 44.8 35.9 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.1 7.2 5.2 56.6 42.7 34.8 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.5 8.6 6.3 65.2 48.6 34.0 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.0 8.0 6.5 64.4 47.7 36.2 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.7 6.8 6.4 67.0 48.3 33.4 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.7 5.9 4.9 60.1 44.3 35.5 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.8 11.0 7.3 66.2 48.7 37.0 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 5.3 6.6 61.6 45.9 36.1 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.9 7.2 64.0 46.9 36.8 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.0 7.9 6.7 68.0 49.4 36.7 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 5.0 8.9 6.7 69.2 50.2 36.5 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.3 8.1 6.9 68.3 49.6 35.0 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.6 8.7 7.1 59.7 44.1 36.2 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.0 7.6 6.6 70.4 52.8 33.0 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.7 6.6 6.6 69.1 49.8 35.4 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.6 5.4 66.5 48.2 37.3 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.3 7.5 62.2 45.3 36.7 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.0 6.2 5.0 59.8 44.5 35.7 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 8.0 9.5 62.9 47.0 37.4 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.9 5.8 5.9 58.2 43.6 34.7 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 3.0 6.3 5.7 67.3 49.0 37.0 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.5 5.2 5.4 59.3 43.9 35.6 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.1 7.6 6.6 60.0 44.2 36.0 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.9 6.8 5.7 54.0 41.3 32.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.8 6.9 6.8 67.5 49.8 35.5 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.0 5.6 5.1 51.8 39.5 32.3 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.8 7.8 6.3 70.6 51.4 34.1 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.9 9.4 8.3 63.5 46.2 37.5 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.3 4.9 57.9 43.2 34.9 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------