***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 39.3 48.5 48.5 116.0 67.5 62.3 26.6 36.2 47.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 38.6 47.5 43.9 118.1 68.6 62.5 25.5 34.7 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 50.2 57.0 46.5 112.3 65.4 59.9 35.9 46.1 57.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 65.1 79.2 78.0 166.1 86.3 80.8 37.6 47.6 58.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 57.2 58.7 57.2 121.5 70.7 64.6 38.5 46.9 55.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 50.6 53.0 55.1 127.4 74.0 67.7 28.4 37.2 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 51.8 54.2 45.4 122.8 71.0 65.2 27.6 38.0 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 66.0 71.6 56.7 112.8 65.3 59.6 53.6 62.6 72.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 39.3 43.4 52.5 110.4 64.2 58.5 28.4 36.0 44.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 49.2 50.9 53.1 105.6 60.7 55.3 38.4 45.9 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 46.7 54.3 55.4 119.4 69.7 63.3 35.8 43.7 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 53.2 56.0 56.1 123.7 71.9 65.6 34.6 43.0 52.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 55.5 58.2 57.9 122.6 71.6 65.8 33.8 43.2 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 65.7 63.2 50.1 96.5 54.0 49.8 48.8 60.4 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 71.6 102.7 91.4 206.6 91.8 87.4 32.4 44.5 58.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 52.0 55.4 57.1 127.4 73.9 67.8 31.0 39.9 49.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 50.1 50.7 44.7 120.3 69.8 63.6 26.1 36.0 47.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 45.8 43.0 49.3 94.3 51.9 48.4 34.7 42.1 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 43.0 50.8 43.6 114.0 66.4 60.0 28.6 38.7 50.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 53.6 51.8 62.5 95.9 53.6 50.4 39.5 49.5 60.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.8 51.4 51.2 113.3 66.0 60.3 32.7 41.8 51.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 40.4 47.5 44.8 114.8 66.9 59.7 26.2 35.9 46.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 40.7 45.1 44.4 108.6 63.1 56.8 28.5 37.1 47.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 56.1 54.9 47.7 98.1 55.2 51.0 43.3 51.9 61.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 56.4 59.8 59.8 124.5 71.9 66.3 31.5 42.3 54.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 54.6 60.4 63.9 138.5 78.7 73.6 29.8 39.1 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 45.2 55.7 51.6 116.6 67.9 62.7 29.9 41.1 54.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 58.5 74.3 78.5 180.9 88.1 82.9 31.7 40.9 51.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 75.0 70.0 51.2 91.5 49.9 47.1 60.3 70.4 80.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 40.4 49.9 44.8 117.7 68.3 62.6 26.4 36.4 48.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------