***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 0.6 0.7 0.4 1.5 67.3 66.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 -1.0 0.0 -0.2 1.2 63.6 62.7 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 2.0 2.0 0.1 1.5 67.4 66.5 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 -3.3 -3.6 -2.3 1.5 65.3 64.6 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 0.1 0.1 -1.3 1.9 69.0 68.2 -3.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 -0.3 0.1 -2.5 2.7 76.1 75.0 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -1.0 0.1 -0.1 1.3 64.2 63.3 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -4.8 -4.8 -3.0 1.7 66.7 65.8 -7.9 -6.3 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 1.3 1.3 -0.4 2.3 72.5 71.7 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 0.1 0.1 -2.2 1.7 66.8 65.9 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 0.1 0.2 -1.6 2.0 69.9 69.1 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.1 1.9 69.5 68.7 -4.1 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 0.0 0.0 -2.1 2.0 70.7 69.8 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 -0.3 0.0 -1.6 0.7 58.3 57.7 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 0.6 0.6 -0.3 2.3 73.3 72.3 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 0.7 0.7 -1.9 2.0 70.5 69.7 -2.7 -1.2 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 -1.3 -0.5 -0.4 1.1 61.7 61.0 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 -2.8 -2.0 -3.3 1.2 62.8 61.7 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 48 52 100 0.3 0.1 -0.2 1.3 64.6 63.7 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 -5.5 -4.6 -4.7 1.2 62.7 61.7 -7.8 -6.0 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9 69.7 69.0 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 -1.3 -0.5 -0.4 1.0 60.5 59.9 -3.1 -1.5 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 0.3 0.3 -0.3 1.3 66.3 65.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 -1.1 -0.2 -1.6 1.2 64.5 63.4 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 0.7 0.7 -0.4 1.8 69.9 68.9 -3.1 -1.3 0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.1 -2.2 1.7 70.3 69.1 -3.3 -1.8 -0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 1.0 1.1 0.0 1.6 69.2 67.9 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -0.8 -1.0 -1.6 1.7 67.5 66.8 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 -3.9 -3.2 -4.0 1.1 61.7 60.6 -6.0 -4.3 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.3 65.0 64.0 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------