***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 6.2 5.2 4.6 0.9 59.5 58.6 2.3 4.1 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.2 4.5 1.1 61.7 60.5 2.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.9 6.7 4.7 0.9 59.4 58.5 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.2 2.3 0.6 56.8 56.2 -1.6 0.5 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.6 2.7 0.5 55.6 55.2 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.2 2.2 0.4 54.3 54.2 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.6 4.8 4.5 1.1 61.5 60.4 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.4 2.3 0.4 54.4 54.6 -2.2 -0.8 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.4 3.7 0.6 56.4 55.8 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.4 3.0 0.4 54.8 54.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.7 2.5 0.4 53.9 53.9 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.7 2.4 0.3 52.9 53.3 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.3 2.1 0.2 51.8 52.4 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.8 4.1 0.7 57.0 56.4 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.6 2.8 0.8 58.7 57.9 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.0 2.2 0.2 52.7 52.9 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.2 4.6 4.5 1.1 62.2 60.9 1.7 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.3 3.0 0.4 54.7 54.9 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.8 5.8 4.6 1.1 61.1 60.0 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.8 1.6 0.4 55.1 55.5 0.5 2.3 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.3 4.2 0.7 57.9 57.1 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.3 4.5 1.1 61.7 60.3 2.2 4.1 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.4 5.5 4.7 0.9 59.8 58.8 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.3 4.0 0.6 56.5 56.2 3.7 5.6 7.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.1 3.2 0.8 59.0 58.1 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.8 2.1 0.2 52.1 53.1 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.4 6.4 4.0 0.9 59.6 58.6 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 2.5 0.6 56.2 55.7 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.8 2.5 0.4 54.7 55.0 0.4 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.2 4.6 1.0 61.1 60.0 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------