***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.4 4.4 2.2 71.9 66.5 1.5 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.7 6.4 4.4 2.5 74.7 69.2 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.5 8.2 4.6 2.3 72.7 67.3 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 3.0 3.3 2.1 1.9 69.8 65.7 -1.3 0.8 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.4 7.1 2.7 1.8 69.0 64.7 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.2 2.0 1.5 65.6 62.4 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.9 4.3 2.4 74.1 68.6 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.5 0.3 2.3 1.6 66.6 63.0 -2.7 -1.2 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.2 8.0 3.7 1.9 69.4 64.6 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.9 3.0 1.7 67.8 63.5 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 7.0 7.0 2.6 1.6 67.4 63.6 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.3 2.4 1.5 66.0 62.8 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.6 2.1 1.4 65.3 62.4 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.9 4.3 2.3 71.8 66.3 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.3 2.4 1.9 70.3 66.4 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.5 2.2 1.5 66.4 63.0 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 5.4 5.9 4.3 2.5 75.2 69.6 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 4.8 4.8 3.1 1.8 67.9 63.5 1.2 2.9 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.6 7.4 4.6 2.5 74.6 69.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.8 3.5 1.5 1.6 66.5 62.8 -0.7 1.4 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.7 4.1 2.1 70.7 65.6 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 6.3 6.9 4.5 2.5 75.3 69.5 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.9 4.8 2.5 73.9 68.3 1.9 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.7 4.1 2.1 70.6 65.4 3.4 5.8 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.9 2.9 2.0 70.9 66.0 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.4 5.8 1.9 1.3 64.4 62.1 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.7 3.8 2.1 71.5 66.1 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.6 2.3 1.8 69.2 65.3 2.8 5.1 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.2 4.1 2.5 1.8 67.6 63.4 -0.1 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.6 6.3 4.5 2.4 74.0 68.5 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------