***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 5.2 5.2 4.4 1.2 65.7 63.6 3.0 4.2 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.9 4.4 1.3 67.3 65.3 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.4 4.5 1.1 65.2 63.2 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.9 1.2 2.0 0.9 61.9 60.4 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.7 2.6 0.8 61.1 59.4 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.0 1.8 0.5 57.2 56.0 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 4.7 4.7 4.3 1.3 67.3 65.2 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.5 2.0 0.5 56.8 55.7 -1.6 -0.8 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 6.9 6.5 3.6 0.9 62.0 60.2 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.4 2.8 0.6 58.1 56.9 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.7 2.4 0.6 58.3 57.0 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.7 2.2 0.4 56.5 55.4 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.4 2.0 0.3 54.9 54.1 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.6 3.9 0.8 61.1 59.5 4.5 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 4.8 4.6 2.8 1.0 64.1 62.6 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.1 2.1 0.5 57.1 56.0 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.5 4.3 1.4 68.0 65.8 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.4 2.6 0.5 57.1 56.0 2.1 3.1 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.6 4.5 1.3 67.0 64.9 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 55.5 54.6 0.8 2.0 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.2 4.1 1.0 63.6 61.7 4.2 5.3 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.1 4.4 1.3 67.8 65.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.4 4.5 1.2 65.9 63.8 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.6 3.8 0.8 60.6 59.0 4.5 5.8 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.9 3.0 1.0 64.4 62.5 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.8 1.8 0.3 55.1 54.3 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.2 3.8 1.1 65.4 63.3 4.0 5.2 6.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.4 2.3 0.8 61.0 59.7 3.8 4.8 5.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.4 2.0 0.4 56.4 55.4 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.0 4.9 4.5 1.3 66.9 64.8 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------