***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.7 8.6 94.2 62.0 54.7 2.4 4.6 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.1 7.0 78.8 57.6 51.6 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 7.3 10.5 11.2 110.3 67.5 61.4 3.0 5.8 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.4 14.3 11.9 113.2 68.2 60.3 4.9 8.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.1 14.6 15.4 137.3 74.6 68.3 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 9.2 10.9 12.9 139.1 75.0 67.1 3.0 5.2 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.3 6.6 79.7 57.4 50.4 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 19.8 22.6 16.6 144.5 76.0 70.6 9.3 13.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 10.7 12.0 16.1 139.9 75.2 69.9 3.3 5.9 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.5 16.9 17.8 147.9 77.0 72.0 5.0 8.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.8 14.4 15.5 146.9 76.7 70.9 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 12.4 14.7 14.6 142.8 75.9 70.1 4.6 7.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 11.7 14.0 15.2 148.0 77.1 71.1 4.3 7.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 18.8 19.9 16.1 128.7 72.6 68.4 5.1 9.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.8 10.7 9.3 101.6 65.2 55.5 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.7 15.1 14.6 145.0 76.5 70.0 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.3 7.9 6.2 75.0 56.0 49.2 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.1 14.8 18.7 144.2 76.3 71.8 4.9 7.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 8.7 9.6 8.4 87.1 60.2 54.5 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 14.2 15.2 17.8 127.7 72.0 67.2 5.3 8.7 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 11.4 11.7 12.9 120.3 70.0 63.5 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 8.7 8.7 7.1 77.7 56.6 49.9 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 8.6 11.9 11.3 106.0 66.2 61.3 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 16.3 17.6 16.3 132.6 73.5 68.7 5.1 9.0 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.5 11.1 103.0 64.0 57.1 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 12.6 14.8 13.1 134.9 74.1 66.8 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.6 9.2 92.3 60.6 53.6 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.4 11.0 11.4 116.4 69.2 60.5 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 19.7 21.6 18.6 137.2 74.6 70.2 8.0 12.4 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.5 8.2 7.8 86.2 59.8 53.5 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------